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Climate change matters to more and more people鈥揳nd could be a deciding factor in the 2024听election

If you ask American voters what their top issues are,听听to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education.

Fewer than 5% of respondents in听听said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country.

Despite this, research听听suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters鈥� choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden鈥檚 favor. This was the conclusion of听听of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado鈥檚听.

What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?

Measuring climate change鈥檚 effect on elections

We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization听听to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters鈥� presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change.

The survey asked voters to rate climate change鈥檚 importance with four options: 鈥渦nimportant,鈥� 鈥渘ot very important,鈥� 鈥渟omewhat important鈥� or 鈥渧ery important.鈥�

In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as 鈥渟omewhat important鈥� or 鈥渧ery important,鈥� up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage.

Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.

These patterns echo the results of a听. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats鈥� approach to climate change, compared to Republicans鈥� approach to the issue.

What might explain the effect of climate change on voting

So, if most voters鈥撯�揹o not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election?

Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:

First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden听听by about 10,000 votes鈥�0.2% of the votes cast鈥揳nd he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast.

Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters鈥� top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real听听that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general.

Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example,听听that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world.

Where the candidates stand

Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment.

罢谤耻尘辫听听climate change a 鈥渉oax.鈥�

In 2017, 罢谤耻尘辫听, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

听that decision in 2021.

While in office, Trump rolled back听听aimed at protecting the country鈥檚 air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that听听产耻蝉颈苍别蝉蝉别蝉.

Biden has restored听. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a听听to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.

Biden has听听听laws that听听tens of听听to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.

On the other hand, the U.S.听听the world鈥檚 largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden鈥檚 term.

In the current campaign, Trump has听听subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts听听from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats.

Public听听on particular听听that听.

Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a听听found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action.

What this means for 2024

听found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.

Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration听听for a plurality of voters, and听听suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden.

Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats鈥� climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats听听when their policies听, or when they are framed as听,听, or听. Some Republican-backed climate policies,听听renewable energy projects, are popular.

Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.

Matt Burgess听is an assistant professor of environmental studies听at the听.

This article is republished from听听under a Creative Commons license. Read the听.

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